Fannie Mae jumped up its forecast for real GDP on a
Q4/Q4 basis this week, revising it from 4.8 percent in last month’s report to
5.5 percent. The company’s economists said they believe this strength partially
reflects a pulling forward of growth from 2022, so their estimate for next year
has been revised downward by a half point to 3.2 percent. They also said that
incoming data for both economic growth and home sales for 2021 were stronger
than anticipated. “We continue to expect both to decelerate, but our prior call
on the timing appears to have been premature,” the December report says.